The Toronto Maple Leafs pulled off one of the biggest surprises in recent NHL Draft Lottery history on Tuesday night, winning the right to select first overall in the 2026 Upper Deck NHL Draft despite having just an 8.5 percent chance at the top pick. The win comes at a pivotal moment for a franchise that underwent sweeping front office changes and failed to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since 2016.
The lottery, held at the NHL Network offices in Secaucus, New Jersey, was televised live for the second consecutive year, giving hockey fans a real-time view of the ping pong balls that determined the fate of the league's top prospects. The Maple Leafs, who entered the night with the fifth-best odds, leaped four spots to claim the No. 1 pick — a stroke of fortune that drew inevitable comparisons to the Chicago Blackhawks winning the Connor Bedard lottery in 2023 and the New York Islanders jumping to No. 1 in 2025.
How the Maple Leafs Won the Lottery: A Night of Long Odds
Toronto's path to the top pick was nothing short of remarkable. The Maple Leafs had just 185 of the 1,001 possible four-digit combinations in the lottery machine — an 18.5 percent chance overall to land somewhere in the top two, but only an 8.5 percent shot at the No. 1 spot. The Vancouver Canucks held the best odds at 18.5 percent, followed by the Chicago Blackhawks at 13.5 percent and the New York Rangers at 11.5 percent.
"You need some luck and we got it tonight," Toronto general manager John Chayka said after the drawing. "It's a long road ahead, of course, and lots of work to do still, but when you get a first overall pick, it's a monumental type of opportunity. I think it's a really good draft, and a lot of good players. It's an honor to pick one overall."
This marks the third time in franchise history the Maple Leafs will pick first. They selected defenseman Wendel Clark with the top pick in 1985 and forward Auston Matthews first overall in 2016 — both moves that shaped the franchise for generations.
Timeline: How the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery Unfolded
The lottery process played out in a two-draw format, with the first draw determining the No. 1 overall pick and a second draw setting the No. 2 selection. Here's how the top of the draft board took shape:
- First Draw: Toronto Maple Leafs win the No. 1 overall pick with 8.5% odds
- Second Draw: San Jose Sharks leap to No. 2 overall, improving from a 5% chance to move up
- Vancouver Canucks, despite having the best odds (18.5%), slide to No. 3
- Chicago Blackhawks (13.5% odds) land at No. 4
- New York Rangers (11.5% odds) round out the top five at No. 5
The remaining lottery positions (picks 6-16) were slotted based on reverse standings order. The first round of the draft is scheduled for June 26 at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, with rounds 2-7 following on June 27.
Breaking Down the Prize: Why Gavin McKenna Is the No. 1 Target
All eyes now turn to Penn State left winger Gavin McKenna, the consensus top prospect and overwhelming favorite to hear his name called first on draft night. According to Polymarket Sports odds, McKenna is at 82 percent to go No. 1 overall, with Ivar Stenberg trailing at 10 percent.
McKenna's journey to the cusp of NHL stardom began in Whitehorse, Yukon, before he dominated the Western Hockey League with the Medicine Hat Tigers, racking up 244 points in 133 career games. He led the Tigers to a Memorial Cup victory in 2024-25 before making the unconventional move to college hockey, joining Penn State — a program that made a historic Frozen Four run this season.
"I've almost got to be perfect at all times," McKenna said in a recent ESPN profile, reflecting on the pressure that comes with being the projected top pick. TSN Director of Scouting Craig Button has McKenna going first overall in his latest mock draft, noting his elite offensive instincts, hockey IQ, and playmaking ability. "For Gavin McKenna, this could be a really good fit for him to come in and to be able to play with somebody as significant as Auston [Matthews]," Button said.
McKenna is ranked as the top North American skater by NHL Central Scouting, listed at 5-foot-11 and 170 pounds with a "considerable margin" ahead of the rest of the draft class according to scouts.
Winners and Losers: Who Came Out Ahead in the Lottery
The lottery reshuffled the order with major implications across the league:
Winners: The Maple Leafs are the obvious victors, but the San Jose Sharks also had a strong night, moving up to secure the No. 2 pick in a deep draft class. The Sharks, who have been rebuilding since trading away their core, add another premium asset to their young pipeline. The New York Rangers landing at No. 5 is also a win for a team that entered with the third-best odds but could have slipped further.
Losers: The Vancouver Canucks endured the toughest beat, entering with the best odds at 18.5 percent but falling to No. 3. The Chicago Blackhawks, who had the second-best odds at 13.5 percent, also slid to No. 4. For a franchise still searching for the next cornerstone after selecting Connor Bedard in 2023, the drop stings.
Where Things Stand Now: Full First-Round Draft Order
With the lottery complete, here is the confirmed order for picks 1-16 of the first round:
- Toronto Maple Leafs
- San Jose Sharks
- Vancouver Canucks
- Chicago Blackhawks
- New York Rangers
- Calgary Flames
- Seattle Kraken
- Winnipeg Jets
- Florida Panthers
- Nashville Predators
- St. Louis Blues
- New Jersey Devils
- New York Islanders
- Columbus Blue Jackets
- St. Louis Blues (via Detroit Red Wings)
- Washington Capitals
Picks 17-32 will be determined by the results of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The full seven-round draft will take place June 26-27 in Buffalo.
What Happens Next: The Road to the Draft and Beyond
For the Maple Leafs, the work is just beginning. Chayka and his revamped front office must now decide between McKenna and other top prospects, conduct interviews, and finalize their draft board ahead of June 26. The decision carries enormous weight — selecting the right franchise player could accelerate a rebuild that seemed daunting just days ago.
McKenna's camp will also be busy with predraft evaluations, combine testing, and team interviews. If Toronto indeed calls his name first, he would join a core that includes Matthews, William Nylander, and Morgan Rielly — a supporting cast that could help the transition to the NHL significantly smoother than most No. 1 picks experience.
For the rest of the lottery teams, attention now turns to scouting and positioning. The Sharks at No. 2, Canucks at No. 3, and Blackhawks at No. 4 all have opportunities to land franchise-altering talent in what scouts are calling a deep and talented draft class.
Key Takeaways from the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery
- The Maple Leafs won the No. 1 pick with just 8.5% odds, the third team in six lotteries to win without having the best odds
- Gavin McKenna is the projected top pick — the Penn State phenom dominated the WHL and led his team to a Memorial Cup before a standout college season
- San Jose won the No. 2 pick in the second draw, while Vancouver fell from best odds to No. 3
- The draft will be held June 26-27 at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, with the first round televised on ESPN and Sportsnet
- Toronto picks first overall for the third time in franchise history, joining the selections of Wendel Clark (1985) and Auston Matthews (2016)
